Steve Eisman Flags Drop in Anthropic’s Sequential Revenue Growth Ahead of Nasdaq Debut

Eisman’s Growth Warning

On October 29, 2026, hedge‑fund veteran Steve Eisman told his podcast audience that Anthropic’s sequential revenue growth slipped from 147 % in the second quarter to 45 % in the third.

Eisman attributed the slowdown to “the end of token maxing,” a phrase he used to describe the fading of heavy usage that had temporarily inflated usage‑based revenue.

The comment came just days after Anthropic filed its S‑1 on October 26, 2026, to list under the ticker “ANT” on Nasdaq, a filing that leaves third‑quarter revenue figures blank.

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) shares fell 2.08 % to $566.42 on October 29, though no direct link to Eisman’s remarks has been established.

At an investor day on October 14, an unnamed attendee reported that Anthropic told prospective investors third‑quarter revenue had reached $16.8 billion, representing more than a 45 % increase over the June figure.

Anthropic declined to comment on the investor‑day claim, leaving the figure unverified.

Financial Metrics and Compute Efficiency

Eisman’s efficiency gauge compares revenue to compute and infrastructure expense, a metric he says can reveal the sustainability of growth.

He noted, “The ratio in the second quarter was 2.08 times, and the ratio in the third quarter was 1.7.”

The second‑quarter ratio aligns with the filing’s disclosed compute expense of $5.558 billion for June.

The third‑quarter estimate of 1.7 × suggests a rise in compute costs relative to revenue, according to Eisman’s calculations.

He also mentioned a reported 50 % price cut in October, adding that he “can’t confirm” the adjustment.

Anthropic’s revenue trajectory shows a climb from $376 million in 2025 to $2.040 billion via $787 million and $1.382 billion, then a jump from $4.731 billion in March to $11.555 billion in June, a rise of roughly 144 %.

Eisman’s 147 % figure matches the press rounding of the June revenue to $11.6 billion.

The S‑1 filing states June‑quarter revenue grew 1,368 % year‑over‑year while compute expense grew 300 %, pushing the revenue‑to‑compute ratio from about 0.69 × in December 2025 to 1.40 × in March.

Net revenue retention was reported at approximately 900 % as of September 30, 2026, indicating strong upsell among existing customers.

More than 11,900 customers spent at least $100,000 over twelve months, with over 1,900 surpassing $1 million and roughly 250 exceeding $10 million.

About 79 % of third‑quarter revenue came from outside the top five customers, suggesting a broadening customer base.

Revenue per employee topped $6.6 million, highlighting high per‑head productivity.

June also delivered Anthropic’s first operating profit of $974 million, but the company posted a net loss of $66.3 billion, driven largely by a $59.6 billion non‑cash fair‑value change on convertible notes, derivatives, and SAFEs tied to a rising valuation.

Claude Opus 5.5, the latest model, cut cost per task by about 40 % compared with Claude Opus 5, a reduction that can boost usage while lowering revenue per task.

Implications for Investors and Partners

Anthropic disclosed on August 4, 2026 that it will deploy up to 2 gigawatts of AMD MI450 Series GPUs in Helios racks starting in the first half of 2027.

OpenAI and Meta Platforms each pledged 6 gigawatts, underscoring the scale of compute demand across leading AI firms.

For a company valued at $924.67 billion at a 213‑times earnings multiple, extending the build‑out could strain capital if revenue growth continues to decelerate.

Anthropic is reportedly seeking up to $100 billion in the IPO, with some investors valuing the firm near $1.5 trillion, down from a prior $2 trillion estimate but still above the May post‑money valuation of $965 billion.

Trading could begin before Thanksgiving on November 26, though no price range has been filed.

Eisman described parts of the prospectus as “extremely negative,” and on a broader market decline he said, “I’m not willing to make that bet just yet.”

His cautious stance adds weight to concerns about whether the high valuation can be sustained amid slowing growth and rising compute costs.

Investors will likely watch the upcoming share price closely to gauge market confidence in Anthropic’s ability to translate its compute‑heavy model deployments into consistent revenue streams.

Why This Matters: The slowdown in Anthropic’s sequential growth and rising compute expense ratio raise questions about the durability of its high valuation as it prepares for a large‑scale Nasdaq debut.